The Bulgarian property market is treading water with holiday homes emerging as the riskiest segment, local real estate investment fund managers said on Wednesday.The ongoing fragmentation of the market will be short-lived and it should regain its brisk growth momentum within the next couple of years, said Todor Stoyanov and Petar Syarov, the second executive director and the investor relations officer of local real estate investment trust Prime Property BG.
In many ways it is difficult to talk about the property market in Bulgaria at the moment – in much the same way as buy-to-let was one of the symbols of the boom in the UK property market, Bulgaria symbolised the vast expansion of the overseas property industry beyond the traditional holiday destinations into the realms of the new Europe.From this point, investors began to realise the full potential of investing in countries that were still not quite developed, and were able to get in at the lower levels of the investment curve.
The price growth, pressure on the construction of new infrastructure, and market speculation about how quickly and how far property prices could rise resulted in huge overbuilding in some areas, where some developments still uncompleted and unsold. As with many overseas property markets, perhaps the most successful investments are away from the most popular areas, and it has long been the view of many that the best opportunities in one of the newest members of the EU were in the ski and city developments. The ski season is longer and perhaps more reliable than the summer season on the coast, and as the resorts are being fully planned from scratch, they are geared to making the most of the summer mountain activities that make a property in a ski resort a potentially perfect investment.
The holiday homes segment had been on the back foot but demand is once again picking up over the last two months, said Stoyanov. Ski resort Bansko and sea resorts Sunny Beach and Sveti Vlas are the most risky property markets at the moment, said Stoyanov and Syarov. Despite the market slowdown, fears that it may cause prices to plummet are ungrounded, said the experts. According to the analysts of the company, the market is undergoing a gradual price reality-check, an indication that a bubble scenario has been averted.
According to the Bulgarian National Bank, the property market contracted by 17% from January to June 2008. The problem is particularly acute in some Black Sea resorts where property analysts believe that over-supply means between 20% and 30% of new-build apartments may remain unsold over the next two years.
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